As soon as a formidable participant in Nigeria’s web market, 9mobile now holds simply over 1% of the web subscriber base, elevating questions on its future in a market the place information has change into the lifeblood of telecom operators.
From a peak of 15.5 million web subscribers in September 2015, the telco has plunged to 1.45 million as of Could 2025, in response to the Nigerian Communications Fee (NCC) information. In a market of over 141 million web customers, just one in each hundred Nigerians chooses 9mobile.
The decline comes at a time when web companies have change into the first progress driver for telecom operators. Rivals MTN and Airtel have aggressively invested in nationwide fibre, spectrum acquisitions, and 4G/5G enlargement to consolidate their dominance. 9mobile, in the meantime, has struggled with infrastructure gaps, community high quality complaints, and years of stagnant innovation.
Now, the corporate is betting on a nationwide roaming take care of MTN Nigeria to claw its approach again into relevance.
Roaming: A lifeline or a stopgap?
In July 2025, 9mobile signed a three-year roaming settlement with MTN, permitting it to make use of MTN’s radio infrastructure in areas the place it lacks protection. The transfer provides 9mobile near-nationwide attain with out the capital-intensive burden of constructing new towers—an association it hopes will stabilise its shrinking web consumer base.
“We’re not freeloading,” stated 9mobile CEO Obafemi Banigbe on the joint press briefing. “It’s a business settlement. Each events are paying for what they use. It’s a win-win.”
For years, poor protection and inconsistent information speeds have plagued 9mobile’s service, driving web customers to rivals. The MTN deal addresses that weak spot, however solely partially. 9mobile hopes to retain present web customers, entice new ones, and purchase time to execute a deeper restoration technique.
Actual restoration, analysts say, will rely on 9mobile’s potential to enhance consumer expertise and market itself as a reputable different.
“They’re too far behind to construct infrastructure,” stated Ladi Okuneye, CEO of UniCloud Africa. “Their money is greatest used for constructing on high quality of service and a great consumer expertise. I don’t suppose they are going to have sufficient money to do each.”
Can roaming result in a comeback?
The roaming settlement is a part of a broader four-phase transformation plan, together with infrastructure upgrades, core community overhaul, billing system modernisation, and a refreshed product suite. Banigbe additionally revealed that the corporate has secured investor commitments value $3 billion for community transformation over the subsequent 4 years.
Whether or not the technique is sufficient stays unsure. Although there are precedents for network-sharing turnarounds—resembling South Africa’s Cell C utilizing MTN’s virtualised RAN to revive its pay as you go enterprise—the dimensions of 9mobile’s decline, and the depth of Nigeria’s information wars, make this a a lot harder climb.
Rival operators like Airtel and Glo haven’t solely secured scale but in addition model belief and deep penetration in underserved areas. In the meantime, Starlink, Spectranet, and different broadband challengers are providing alternate options within the fixed-wireless area.
Okuneye believes the perfect restoration technique will likely be for 9mobile to think about working like a cell digital community operator (MVNO) as a substitute of investing in new infrastructure.
“In the event that they make it, they might want to renew the roaming deal (after three years) and doubtless signal others,” Okuneye stated. “They primarily want to take a look at themselves as an MVNO. It’s best they leverage another person’s infrastructure.”
What’s at stake
Past business competitors, 9mobile’s restoration—or lack thereof—has broader financial implications. The telecom sector is one in all Nigeria’s greatest contributors to GDP and tax income. A weak or failing participant reduces the sector’s resilience and limits buyer selection. Regulators have lengthy pushed for infrastructure sharing to decrease prices, enhance rural protection, and increase digital inclusion.
Talking on the roaming sharing partnership announcement, MTN Nigeria’s CEO, Karl Toriola, stated that is the primary deal of its type in West, East, and Central Africa. “This isn’t only a technical integration. It’s a shift in how we take into consideration competitors—in the direction of collaboration,” he stated.
9mobile’s roaming deal might change into a mannequin for a way struggling telecom operators survive within the age of information. However the actual check will likely be execution. Can 9mobile improve quick sufficient? Can it provide worth that convinces customers to return? Can it develop from 1% to five%, and even 10%, of the market?
These are questions solely time and clients can reply.
However one factor is evident: with no important turnaround in its web enterprise, 9mobile’s future as a telecom operator in Nigeria stays unsure. And in a rustic the place information is more and more synonymous with alternative, relevance, and progress, staying small is now not an choice.
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