Haywood says this pot inventory is a winner

In a Nov. 5 report, Haywood Capital Markets analyst Neal Gilmer maintained his “Purchase” score and C$15.00 goal worth on Trulieve Hashish (Trulieve Hashish Inventory Quote, Chart, Information, Analysts, Financials CSE:TRUL), citing regular execution, resilient profitability, and a stable outlook heading into fiscal 2026.

Trulieve reported third-quarter income of US$288.2-million, up 1.4% yr over yr however down 4.6% sequentially, in step with estimates of US$287.1-million (Haywood) and US$287.5-million (consensus). Adjusted EBITDA was US$102.7-million, forward of forecasts of US$96.1-million and US$95.9-million, respectively, whereas Adjusted EBITDA margin of 35.6% in contrast with 36.6% within the prior quarter and 33.8% a yr earlier. Gross margin got here in at 58.9%, just under expectations, however Gilmer mentioned total profitability stays among the many finest within the U.S. hashish sector.

Working money circulation was US$76.8-million, with free money circulation of US$64.4-million. The corporate ended the interval with US$457.6-million in money and restricted money, notes payable of US$477.5-million, and complete debt of US$813.1-million.

Retail income accounted for 94% of complete gross sales, reaching US$270.8-million, up 0.6% yr over yr. Trulieve bought over 12.5 million branded merchandise within the quarter, up 7% from a yr earlier, whereas companywide buyer retention reached 68% and medical affected person retention 76%. The corporate opened one new dispensary in Ohio and relocated one other in Arizona, bringing its complete retailer rely to 232 places nationwide.

Administration introduced plans to redeem all US$368-million of senior secured notes on Dec. 5, 2025, and will concern as much as US$150-million in new notes, relying on market situations. For the fourth quarter, Trulieve expects low single-digit income progress and full-year 2025 money from operations of a minimum of US$250-million, with capital expenditures revised upward to US$45-million.

Gilmer mentioned Trulieve continues to exhibit sturdy operational self-discipline, noting that “whereas margins could mood barely from the previous two quarters, they continue to be at very wholesome ranges.”

He mentioned the corporate’s strategic growth into Pennsylvania and Arizona enhances its dominant place in Florida, making Trulieve “one of many best-positioned multi-state operators within the U.S.”

Gilmer forecasts Adjusted EBITDA of US$424.5-million on income of US$1.184-billion in fiscal 2025, moderating barely to US$413.3-million on income of US$1.211-billion in 2026.

He mentioned he stays optimistic on Trulieve’s long-term outlook, citing its sturdy steadiness sheet, money era, and management place in key U.S. hashish markets.

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