Do you have to promote your Intermap inventory?

Beacon Securities analyst Russell Stanley maintained a “Purchase” ranking on Intermap Applied sciences (Intermap Applied sciences Inventory Quote, Chart, Information, Analysts, Financials TSX:IMP) however lower his goal value to $3.00 from $5.50 after the corporate withdrew its fiscal 2025 steerage and reset expectations for 2026 amid a delay in a key Indonesian contract resolution.

Stanley mentioned the discount displays downward estimate revisions following Intermap’s disclosure that the choice date for Section II work underneath Indonesia’s One Map program has been pushed again by roughly two weeks. Given the significance of that contract, administration withdrew its 2025 outlook and launched what Stanley described as conservative preliminary steerage for 2026, prompting Beacon to reset forecasts pending additional contract readability.

Intermap mentioned the undertaking’s web site now exhibits an “Problem Discover of Intention to Award” date of Feb. 10. Administration indicated the delay is meant to permit further time for evaluate and coordination, whereas emphasizing that the scale and scope of this system stay unchanged.

“Whereas the F2025 steerage withdrawal is a setback, the inventory was doubtless already partially pricing that in,” Stanley mentioned, noting the absence of contract win information by way of mid-December and softer outcomes earlier within the yr. He added {that a} one- to two-month delay on a undertaking of this scale mustn’t, by itself, be a significant long-term valuation driver.

Beacon now expects Intermap to generate an Adjusted EBITDA lack of about $1-million on income of roughly $13-million in fiscal 2025. For fiscal 2026, Stanley forecasts Adjusted EBITDA of roughly $9.6-million on income of about $35-million, implying an EBITDA margin of roughly 28%. These figures signify a pointy reset from Beacon’s October view, when Stanley had anticipated Intermap to generate about US$8-million of Adjusted EBITDA on US$30-million of income in fiscal 2025, enhancing to US$21-million on US$56 million of income in fiscal 2026.

Stanley mentioned the brand new 2026 steerage establishes a “very reachable bar.” As beforehand outlined in Beacon’s September observe, the Indonesia One Map contract requires a 15% advance on contract worth. Ought to Intermap win all 4 tons, Stanley mentioned the advances alone might permit the corporate to strategy or meet its 2026 steerage, with further contract wins supporting upward revisions to each steerage and estimates.

“We consider our prior $56-million income and $21-million EBITDA forecast stays achievable, however prudence calls for that we modify for the brand new steerage,” he mentioned.

At present ranges, Stanley mentioned Intermap trades at about 8.9 occasions Beacon’s revised 2026 Adjusted EBITDA forecast, representing a steep low cost to friends. By comparability, BlackSky Expertise trades at roughly 31 occasions EBITDA and Planet Labs at a considerably greater a number of. Beacon values Intermap at 14 occasions 2026E EBITDA, which nonetheless implies a significant low cost to friends.

Whereas the inventory was down about 14% on heavy quantity following the announcement, he mentioned shares seem to have discovered technical assist round $2.00, a stage that has beforehand held and now coincides with a roughly 50% retracement of the June 2024 to September 2025 rally.

Intermap is a Colorado-based geospatial intelligence firm that gives high-resolution 3D terrain information and Earth-surface fashions for aviation, telecommunications, defence, authorities and different business clients.

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