Lightspeed is a wait-and-see inventory, ATB says

ATB Capital Markets analyst Martin Toner maintained a “Sector Carry out” ranking on Lightspeed Commerce (Lightspeed Commerce Inventory Quote, Chart, Information, Analysts, Financials TSX:LSPD) however lowered his worth goal to C$18.00 from C$19.00 in a Feb. 6 report following the corporate’s third-quarter fiscal 2026 outcomes.

Lightspeed reported Q3/FY26 income of US$312.3-million, up 11% 12 months over 12 months and above firm steering, whereas Adjusted EBITDA of US$20.2-million exceeded consensus expectations of US$19.0-million. Toner mentioned the quarter confirmed continued momentum within the firm’s core progress engines — North American retail and European hospitality — which grew 21% 12 months over 12 months and now account for roughly two-thirds of consolidated income.

“Regardless of the placement progress, we’re reducing our worth goal to replicate moderated complete software program income progress and decrease funds penetration and take charge,” Toner mentioned, including that ATB stays “inspired by the top-of-house progress within the outcomes” however needs to see additional execution earlier than turning into extra constructive on the shares.

Operationally, Lightspeed added roughly 2,600 internet buyer places inside its progress engines throughout the quarter, the quickest tempo since its enterprise transformation started. Complete month-to-month ARPU rose to about US$660, up 11% 12 months over 12 months, supported by deeper funds adoption and a shift towards bigger, extra refined retailers. GTV grew 7% 12 months over 12 months, reflecting steady demand in additional mature markets and the contribution from 5,200 internet new places added over the previous two quarters.

The corporate additionally posted its second consecutive quarter of constructive free money stream, producing US$15-million, whereas software program gross margins expanded to 82% from 79% a 12 months earlier, pushed by cloud price self-discipline and AI-enabled assist instruments. Lightspeed launched new AI assistants throughout retail, restaurant and NuORDER platforms, permitting retailers to floor real-time insights by means of natural-language queries.

On capital allocation, Toner famous that Lightspeed has roughly US$200-million remaining beneath its broader US$400-million share repurchase authorization, though its present NCIB capability for fiscal 2026 has been totally utilized. Administration is predicted to hunt board and TSX approval to resume this system in March 2026.

Following the quarter, Toner trimmed his fiscal 2026 income estimate to US$1,215.4-million whereas elevating his Adjusted EBITDA forecast to US$72.5-million. For fiscal 2027, he now expects income of US$1,304.0-million and Adjusted EBITDA of US$97.1-million, reflecting a extra conservative view on funds penetration and barely larger working bills as Lightspeed accelerates progress investments.

-30-