This hashish inventory will beat the market, analyst says

Haywood Capital Markets analyst Neal Gilmer reiterated his “Purchase” ranking and $1.30 goal value on Rubicon Organics (Rubicon Organics  Inventory Quote, Chart, Information, Analysts, Financials TSXV:ROMJ) in a March 24 report, saying the corporate stays nicely positioned in Canada’s premium hashish section and may see stronger development and margin enlargement within the second half of 2026.

Gilmer stated fourth-quarter outcomes have been typically in keeping with expectations and the outlook stays constant together with his view, regardless of near-term stress from seasonal softness and ramp-up prices tied to the Cascadia facility.

“Rubicon continues to have sturdy market share throughout the premium section throughout its markets,” he stated. “The corporate stays prudent in working bills with a strong stability sheet. The acquisition of the brand new facility will assist drive continued development subsequent 12 months.”

Rubicon, which focuses on premium natural hashish merchandise, reported This fall 2025 income of $16.5-million, up 15.9% year-over-year and 5.3% sequentially, forward of Gilmer’s $16.0-million estimate. Adjusted gross margin was 32.1%, down from 33.7% within the third quarter as prices associated to the Cascadia facility weighed on profitability. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.2-million, or 7.2% of income, barely under Gilmer’s $1.7-million forecast.

The corporate used $3.3-million in money from operations throughout the quarter, largely due to working capital investments, and ended the interval with $4.0-million in money and $12.1-million in debt.

Gilmer famous that Rubicon continued to realize share in a number of premium classes. In 2025, the corporate held 2.2% nationwide market share in flower, 2.1% in pre-rolls, and seven.2% within the premium section total. It additionally ranked No. 3 in premium vapes with 18.3% share, whereas its Wildflower topical model maintained the highest place in Canada with 25.9% market share.

Administration set a $5.0-million capital spending finances for 2026, together with $2.0-million for upkeep, $1.5-million for hydrocarbon manufacturing to carry extra manufacturing in-house, and $1.5-million for automation and different effectivity tasks supposed to help margin enchancment.

Gilmer stated he made solely minor changes to forecasts following the quarter and continues to count on Cascadia to drive outsized development later this 12 months, with extra upside from worldwide gross sales in 2027.

He additionally highlighted Rubicon’s technique of tiered model positioning.

“Rubicon is implementing the Good, Higher, Finest product positioning technique because it targets the premium and above natural hashish market section,” he stated.

Haywood forecasts Rubicon will generate $9.9-million in Adjusted EBITDA on income of $71.1-million in fiscal 2026, bettering to $15.6-million in Adjusted EBITDA on income of $83.9-million in fiscal 2027.

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