COT report: Almost half of managed cash’s commodity publicity now in gold – Saxo Financial institution

Commodities

The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) prolonged its rally, rising 2.5% within the newest reporting week. Beneficial properties in power and treasured metals supported recent shopping for and quick protecting, whereas agriculture broadly struggled—corn being the notable exception.

Managed cash accounts responded by including size throughout all power and steel contracts, whereas recent quick promoting weighed on the agriculture sector, most notably soybeans, sugar, and cotton.

Vitality

Forward of final Wednesday, when Reuters reported that eight OPEC+ producers had been discussing one other sudden manufacturing enhance, speculators had been robust internet patrons of Brent crude on Russian provide disruption considerations. The web lengthy jumped 22% to 251k heaps, pushed by a mixture of new longs and quick protecting. WTI, against this, held an total internet quick for a fourth week (CME and ICE mixed), albeit barely lowered.

The sudden prospect of recent OPEC+ provide wrong-footed Brent patrons and helped set off a four-dollar correction into the week’s shut. Costs have since rebounded from assist close to USD 65, after OPEC+ confirmed plans to revive one other layer of halted manufacturing in October, however at a measured tempo of simply 137,000 barrels per day. The transfer underscores the group’s effort to regain market share and enhance revenues, whereas the rapid impression stays restricted as Iraq, Kazakhstan, and the UAE should totally compensate for overproduction since January 2024.

Metals

Silver’s break above USD 40 for the primary time in 14 years, alongside gold’s recent report excessive, lifted speculative internet longs by 20% and 14% respectively. By nominal worth, managed cash accounts now maintain 47% of their whole commodity publicity in gold and seven% in silver. The heavy focus in gold underscores the power of a rally that has endured for months, with solely shallow corrections to this point—inadequate to set off broad lengthy liquidation or power merchants to await a recent entry sign.

Copper internet longs rose 25% as merchants re-engaged, with lowered volatility and renewed value discovery drawing recent curiosity after the tariff-driven pump-and-dump episode earlier this yr.

Foreign exchange

The Greenback Index completed the newest reporting week little modified, as small features in AUD and CAD had been offset by minor losses throughout the opposite six IMM futures contracts tracked. Total, non-commercial merchants maintained divergent views throughout main foreign money futures, trimming the mixture quick greenback place to USD 5.1 billion, down sharply from June when the gross quick prolonged above USD 20 billion.

Positioning remained closely skewed, with elevated longs in EUR (USD 17.4 billion), JPY (USD 6.2 billion), and to a lesser extent MXN, partly offset by sizeable shorts in CAD (USD 7.9 billion), AUD (-USD 5.4 billion), and CHF (-USD 4 billion).

Agriculture

Soybeans got here underneath renewed promoting and lengthy liquidation amid weak Chinese language demand, whereas corn benefited from quick protecting on the again of a smaller crop outlook forward of Friday’s WASDE report. Wheat stays pressured by a sturdy world manufacturing outlook, weighing on close by contracts relative to deferred and lifting the contango—including to the optimistic roll yield of holding quick positions.

Sugar shorts stayed elevated, whereas the cocoa internet lengthy dropped to a 2½-year low.