Do you have to promote your Bragg Gaming Group inventory?

Haywood analyst Gianluca Tucci lowered his worth goal on Bragg Gaming Group (Bragg Gaming Group Inventory Quote, Chart, Information, Analysts, Financials TSX:BRAG) to C$5.50 from C$7.50 however reiterated his “Purchase” ranking following a softer-than-expected This fall preannouncement and 2026 steering that fell wanting consensus.

Bragg Gaming is a worldwide B2B gaming expertise firm offering turnkey gaming options to on line casino operators. The corporate generates nearly all of its income in Europe, whereas increasing into North America and Latin America.

Bragg preannounced This fall/25 income of €27.7-million and Adjusted EBITDA of €4.6-million, under consensus estimates of €28.4-million and €5.0-million, and Tucci’s forecasts of €28.2-million and €4.8-million.

For 2026, the corporate guided to income of €97.0-million to €104.5-million and Adjusted EBITDA of €16.0-million to €19.0-million, in contrast with consensus and Tucci’s prior estimates of €109.5-million/€110.2-million in income and €18.3-million/€17.9-million in EBITDA.

Tucci characterised the reset as a “mandatory pivot” as the corporate diversifies geographically past the Netherlands and shifts towards higher-margin merchandise.

He famous that regulatory and tax headwinds within the Netherlands — together with a rise in betting and lottery tax to 34.2% in January 2025, with an additional rise to 37.8% in 2026 — have pressured the broader trade. The Netherlands has traditionally been Bragg’s largest market and is the first driver of the softer 2026 outlook.

In response, Bragg just lately introduced a restructuring that features a 12% discount in world headcount, anticipated to generate €4.5-million in annualized financial savings, with a one-time €1.0-million cost in Q1/26.

“We view this transfer as a proactive pivot to align the corporate’s price construction with its new AI-first technique and to offset current regulatory headwinds,” Tucci mentioned.

The corporate can also be increasing within the U.S. and Brazil, now addressing greater than 90% of the U.S. on-line on line casino complete addressable market and focusing on as much as 15% of 2025 income from the U.S. and 10% from Brazil.

“BRAG continues to develop its presence throughout its important geographies in Europe however has its eye on monetizing the profitable North American alternative,” Tucci mentioned. “The Firm is pointing to margin enlargement within the quarters forward pushed by price efficiencies and a give attention to margins over aggressive income progress.”

Tucci revised his estimates to replicate the up to date outlook, now forecasting €106.1-million in income and €16.6-million in Adjusted EBITDA for 2025, and €100.8-million in income and €17.5-million in EBITDA for 2026.

He believes acquisitions stay a possible catalyst in what he described as a fragmented iGaming panorama.

Tucci mentioned Bragg ought to generate €17.5-million in Adjusted EBITDA on income of €100.8-million in fiscal 2026, with outcomes stabilizing in fiscal 2027 as geographic diversification progresses.

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