How Trump might make good on his threats to chop ‘sanctuary’ metropolis funding

Earlier this month, President Donald Trump introduced that his administration would halt federal funds to cities and states with insurance policies that restrict cooperation with federal immigration enforcement, beginning Feb. 1.

Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani instantly vowed to combat any funding cuts in court docket, and authorized consultants identified that federal courts prohibited Trump from halting federal funds to 34 so-called “sanctuary jurisdictions” in August.

However Nadav Shoked, a professor on the Northwestern College Pritzker Faculty of Regulation, warns metropolis leaders to not underestimate Trump’s risk. The administration might discover methods to work round authorized impediments, he stated. Right here’s how — and what metropolis leaders ought to be doing to organize.

The next interview has been edited for size and readability.

SMART CITIES DIVE: President Trump has tried to withhold federal funding to “sanctuary” cities earlier than. May he succeed this time?

NADAV SHOKED: Proper now, we do not know if they’re going to attempt to do something as a result of, at this level, it’s a really open-ended announcement coming from the president himself slightly than from the businesses or legal professionals that must do it and defend it. It’s extremely powerful to leap to a conclusion from that. However I might not routinely write off the probability. If the federal administration is sensible about it — and whether or not one likes this present administration or not, they’re clearly being good about issues in a approach that they weren’t in 2017 or 2018 — there are tons of levers that they will use to take cash from native governments.

What does that appear to be?

If the administration picks a particular program with a federal enabling statute that leaves leeway to the pertinent administrator — whether or not it is the secretary of transportation or the legal professional basic — to choose who really will get a particular grant, it’s not going to be very tough for them to resolve that they are not giving it to Chicago or resolve that they are including a requirement that you need to assist [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] as a way to get this cash.

Say a police-related grant particularly says that it hinges on the federal authorities verifying that these police forces are performing in accordance with federal requirements. On this case, the Division of Justice might simply say, if you happen to’re not battling immigration, you are not functioning as a police drive, therefore we’re not providing you with the cash. So, either side will need to actually, actually concentrate on the main points of the person grants which can be being singled out.

So, the administration can’t lower off all federal funding beginning Feb. 1?

The way in which I perceive it’s that they are simply not going to award particular grants. They have not stated which particular grants. The rationale there’s a lot uncertainty is as a result of, regardless that we’re inching very near Feb. 1, they have not stated which grants are those that they are going after. It’s not just like the fiscal yr begins and you are not going to get something for 2026. The way in which I understood it’s simply that beginning at this date, not one of the federal businesses are going to approve any grant functions from “sanctuary” cities. However we nonetheless have to know what grants we’re speaking about.

Gained’t the courts cease them as they’ve earlier than?

It actually will depend on how refined the federal authorities is in choosing its targets. And my sense is that they are much extra refined now than they was once. What we have been seeing this yr is rather more authorized sophistication on the a part of the administration than earlier than. So, legal professionals for a metropolis at this level need to be on the highest of their sport as a result of sure, the administration is doing outlandish issues, however they’re backing it up with actual arguments — generally winners, generally losers, however by no means nonsense arguments, which is what traditionally we had been extra used to.

How ought to native governments put together?

Learn your grants fastidiously — not simply the grants, however the particular statutes below which these grants are issued — and see what number of of them are literally granted to you thru very open-ended standards. Tons of cash may be very opaque or versatile in the way it’s awarded to particular person cities.

There are a whole lot of grants, some huge cash, that the related authority can actually give to whomever it pleases. There is not any possible way of claiming, oh, a venture in Kentucky is admittedly extra worthwhile than one in West Virginia. So, if you happen to’re the federal authorities right this moment and you actually dislike Chicago on your personal causes, which could or won’t be respectable, it is not that tough to start out simply not approving all these grants. When you actually need to make a metropolis harm, simply take away that delicate cash. However then, you aren’t getting the political upside since you’re not saying it.