Is it time to dump your Tilray inventory?

Haywood Capital Markets mentioned on Jan. 9 that it has lowered its goal worth on Tilray Manufacturers (Tilray Manufacturers Inventory Quote, Chart, Information, Analysts, Financials TSX:TLRY) to $10.50 from $18.00 whereas sustaining a Maintain score, following the corporate’s fiscal second-quarter 2026 outcomes, which got here in broadly in keeping with expectations however mirrored margin strain from income combine.

Tilray reported fiscal Q2 2026 outcomes for the interval ended Nov. 30, 2025, with internet income of $217.5-million and Adjusted EBITDA of $8.4-million. That in contrast with Haywood’s estimates of $214.3-million in income and $7.4-million in Adjusted EBITDA, and Road consensus of $211.2-million and $8.1-million, respectively. Income elevated 3.1% 12 months over 12 months and three.8% sequentially.

Haywood analyst Neal Gilmer mentioned income progress versus the prior 12 months was pushed by a modest improve in adult-use hashish gross sales and a leap in lower-margin distribution revenues, which weighed on profitability. Firm-wide adjusted gross margin got here in at 26.4%, under Haywood’s 28.6% estimate and down from 29.7% a 12 months earlier.

“Tilray’s efforts towards value containment and operational effectivity led to EBITDA in-line with our forecast,” Gilmer mentioned, noting that expense reductions helped offset the margin strain.

Tilray’s beverage and alcohol phase posted a 20.6% year-over-year income decline, reflecting continued headwinds within the craft beer market and portfolio optimization below Challenge 420. Adjusted gross margin within the phase fell to 31.4% from 42.1% final 12 months, largely attributable to decrease volumes. Administration reiterated that it stays on monitor to attain $33-million in whole annual financial savings from Challenge 420.

In hashish, internet income rose 2.9% 12 months over 12 months to $67.5-million, supported by stronger worldwide gross sales and a modest improve in adult-use volumes. Medical hashish gross sales have been flat, whereas wholesale income declined, according to the phase’s sometimes lumpy nature.

Tilray reiterated its fiscal 2026 steerage for Adjusted EBITDA of $62-million to $72-million, implying progress of 13% to 31% over fiscal 2025. Haywood made solely minor modifications to its forecasts, elevating its income outlook barely whereas conserving its fiscal 2026 EBITDA estimate towards the decrease finish of the steerage vary.

Gilmer mentioned latest enthusiasm round potential U.S. federal reform has pale, with investor skepticism returning and the share worth drifting again towards prior ranges. In consequence, Haywood diminished its valuation a number of to 1.4x EV/income on fiscal 2027 estimates, down from 2.5x beforehand, discounted at 15%.

Haywood forecasts Tilray will generate Adjusted EBITDA of $61.8-million on income of $863.6-million in fiscal 2026, enhancing to $69.0-million of Adjusted EBITDA on income of $910.7-million in fiscal 2027.

The agency mentioned it continues to view Tilray as a distinguished diversified participant with long-term optionality tied to worldwide hashish and U.S. beverage publicity, however stays cautious on near-term natural progress and money stream visibility, underpinning its Maintain suggestion.

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