In short
- A risky crypto market has led to drastic odds shifts on a few of Myriad’s most-traded prediction markets.
- Predictors have flipped bearish on Ethereum and PENGU, now suggesting each usually tend to “dump” then rise to new heights.
- Whereas a Solana all-time excessive by the yr’s finish felt seemingly final week, predictors now not anticipate it.
The crypto market is slumping this week as liquidations surge, prompting main adjustments to a few of Myriad’s most traded prediction markets.
Within the span of every week, predictors have flipped from bullish to bearish, swinging the percentages utterly for markets associated to the worth of Ethereum, Solana, and Pudgy Penguins’ tradition coin, PENGU.
Right here’s a deeper look into among the most-traded markets on Myriad this week.
(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt’s dad or mum firm, DASTAN.)
Ethereum’s subsequent hit: moon to $5K or dip to $3.5K?
Market Open: August 11
Market Shut: Open to decision
Quantity: $140K
Hyperlink: See the newest odds on the “Ethereum’s Subsequent Hit: Moon to $5K or Dip to $3.5K” market on Myriad
The euphoria across the short-lived Ethereum all-time excessive push final month has all however pale at current time. The second-largest crypto asset by market cap got here inside $54 of hitting $5,000 in late August, however has since slid under $4,000 on the time of writing.
That worth volatility has mirrored itself on the Myriad market that asks predictors in regards to the subsequent cease for ETH—$3,500 or $5,000.
Because the market opened on August 11, predictors had leaned bullish, with odds hitting as excessive as 81% in favor of $5,000 on September 13. Lower than two weeks later, although, the market has flipped bearish, with predictors now favoring a dip to $3,500 at 68%.
After a busy race to build up Ethereum, digital asset treasuries have cooled their tempo of late and Ethereum ETFs have seen three consecutive days of outflows, additional pulling the worth of ETH down alongside the broader market.
Now greater than 20% off its all-time excessive, ETH sits round 11% from the $3,500 degree on this market. Holders trying to hedge their positions on Myriad may stand to achieve round 32% ought to the asset fall to that marker before it could make the leap to $5,000.
What’s Subsequent? ETH is now down 15% within the final seven days, with analysts telling Decrypt on Thursday {that a} key help degree sits at $3,000.
New Solana all-time excessive by yr finish?
Market Open: August 6
Market Shut: December 31
Quantity: $94.4K
Hyperlink: See the newest odds on the “New Solana All-Time Excessive By 12 months Finish” market on Myriad
Solana made a brand new all-time excessive of $293.31 in January because it gained monumental quantities of consideration and momentum amid the launch of the President’s official meme coin.
Since that point although, it’s fallen 32% to $197.14.
Myriad asks predictors whether or not or not SOL will hit a brand new all-time excessive earlier than the tip of the yr. Final week, predictors mentioned “sure,” giving 66% odds of a brand new excessive mark for SOL earlier than 2026.
Quick-forward one week, nevertheless, and issues are a lot totally different.
SOL has fallen greater than 21% within the final seven days because the broader market slumps, flattening odds of the brand new all-time excessive by an identical quantity. These odds now stand at 43% as predictors lean bearish on the feat.
The token’s slide stands within the face of accelerating Solana treasury purchase strain, one a part of the recipe that Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan recognized is essential for an “epic” finish to the yr for SOL. Final week, Ahead Industries purchased practically $1.6 billion price of SOL for its treasury. It later filed for $4 billion extra in funding to gasoline further purchases.
That purchase strain mixed with looming ETF selections within the subsequent month may very well be a catalyst for the run to a brand new all-time excessive. However is it already priced in? Predictors should suppose so.
What’s Subsequent? SEC selections on as many as 90 ETFs, many monitoring Solana, are anticipated in mid-October.
PENGU worth: pump to $0.05 or dump to $0.02?
Market Open: September 16
Market Shut: Till decision
Quantity: $22.1K
Hyperlink: See the newest odds on the “PENGU Value: Pump to $0.05 or Dump to $0.02?” market on Myriad
Since its launch late final yr, PENGU has offered Pudgy Penguins fans with a possibility to spend money on a fungible asset—one thing apart from the Ethereum NFT collections tied to the model.
The ecosystem’s tradition coin launched on Solana in December and rapidly jumped above $0.06 earlier than retracing within the following weeks—and buying and selling effectively under $0.01 for many of Q1. After one other steep rise this summer time, the token has fallen 29% within the week, now altering fingers at $0.027.
The latest worth motion has led to volatility in Myriad’s prediction market, which asks predictors which cease is subsequent for PENGU—$0.05 or $0.02.
Final week, predictors have been bullish, inserting odds at $0.05 at greater than 68% this time final Thursday. However in only one week, the percentages have achieved a whole reversal, shifting greater than 30% in each instructions and now favoring $0.02 because the seemingly subsequent step for PENGU.
PENGU hasn’t been as little as $0.02 since July, and to get there, it might must fall an additional 27% from immediately’s mark. Predictors really feel that’s more likely than an 82% leap to $0.05.
What’s Subsequent? A call on Canary’s PENGU ETF is due within the coming weeks. If permitted, may or not it’s a catalyst wanted to propel the asset again in the direction of $0.05?
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