Why predictions matter – and MIDiA’s tackle 2026

It’s by no means been straightforward to foretell the longer term. It appears to have grow to be even more durable in the previous couple of years. As applied sciences evolve sooner than ever, so too does the buyer behaviour surrounding them – essentially the most salient instance, in fact, being AI. As leisure continues to fragment, and ever extra shoppers transfer to extra area of interest teams and even offline, understanding at this time’s shoppers has grow to be extra difficult – which makes understanding who they’ll grow to be tomorrow extra difficult too. 

So why attempt to make predictions in any respect?

MIDiA is now within the ninth yr of our annual Predictions report (and since 2022, an annual related webinar), the place analysts focus on what to anticipate throughout leisure within the coming yr. Our newest version is arising on January 15. As the duty has grow to be more durable, we now have solely grow to be extra intent on doing it. Right here’s why.

As a result of reactive methods are not sufficient

Take the music enterprise and TikTok. Social video apps irrevocably modified music in methods hardly anybody noticed coming, forcing artists, labels, and entrepreneurs into protection mode. Whereas most reacted the perfect they might amid the circumstances, their selections had penalties. Because of the stress to signal and launch extra music, sooner, artist improvement has usually fallen by the cracks. As MIDiA’s upcoming impartial label survey report displays, many labels are solely simply now going again to a “much less is extra” method. In the meantime, the arrival of social media as leisure is about to reshape the enterprise. Social video time is now eclipsing music streaming time, however solely accounts for a slim minority of music {industry} income. 

Now with AI, the music {industry} is evolving to satisfy new know-how sooner than it ever has. But it’s nonetheless struggling to maintain tempo, making it more durable to proactively make selections for the longer term. The duty at hand is not only about predicting modifications, however being prepared for them.

As a result of optimisation isn’t sufficient, both

As streaming-era enterprise fashions mature, most methods throughout the leisure {industry} – like elevating costs or creating new tiers – are about optimising the present mannequin. Whereas these are essential near-term techniques, they won’t be sufficient to guide leisure into its subsequent period of development. Take into consideration the music enterprise within the late ‘90s. Again then, the CD was the dominant format, and post-boom development was pursued through, you guessed it, value will increase – solely to come back crashing down with the arrival of Napster.

As MIDiA explores in our current Way forward for labels and Way forward for music streaming reviews, now is an important time for the music {industry} to actively construct the following mannequin – fairly than reacting to disruption later. The identical is true for all leisure industries, from social to video to gaming. 

As a result of usually, we get it proper

We don’t simply make predictions – we additionally grade our work every year and share the outcomes publicly. We’re proud to have a median success charge of 81% throughout the final eight years, which means that the overwhelming majority of our predictions have both partially or totally come true. That’s no accident. Our takes are grounded in and stress-tested by rigorous information, from sources like our international shopper, creator, and government surveys, and our industry-leading forecasts and market fashions. We all know how essential it’s for our purchasers and the broader {industry} to have data-backed, forward-looking evaluation, so we by no means deal in guesswork. 

So what’s MIDiA predicting for 2026? 

The return of charge limiters in music, AI-first film studios, a microdrama gold rush, the re-localisation of social media, and rather more. 

To listen to all of it, be part of us on January 15, 2026 at MIDiA’s 2026 Predictions Webinar, a free digital occasion the place our knowledgeable analysts will share data-driven predictions throughout music, the creator economic system, and cross-entertainment. You’ll be able to safe your spot at our occasions web page right here. Purchasers can even now entry our full report, MIDiA Analysis 2026 predictions | Change is the fixed, for a deeper look. We hope to see you there.